PreCrime

One infamous prediction that is coming true is based on Philip K. Dick’s 1956 short story Minority Report (Captain, 2015).  While the mechanism differs, the end differs the result is similar and concerning.  Dick’s visionary work relies on the idea of precognition instead of Big Data to determine when a crime will occur.

Instead of precognition, surveillance and advanced models are utilized to make predictions of future crimes. Using models created in R, they can detect patterns that would be missed otherwise.  Interestingly enough, precognition may exist (Complex, 2016).  That said, algorithms seem to be the more likely path to PreCrime enforcement.

One trend is the use of statistical history to predict crime and plan according (Hickman, 2013).  The idea is to predict where crime is likely to occur and place police forces in a position to intervene.  Taken to an extreme, individuals how are identified as being likely to commit a crime may be essentially judged and to some extent punished before the commission of the crime.

The forces that enabled Dick’s prediction to come true (using Big Data Analytics and Artificial Intelligence, not precognition) are many (Hickman, 2013).  Low-cost processing and storage has led to an explosion of data that can be captured, stored, and processed.  Algorithms have recently been developed that enable learning in a way previously impossible.  These Deep Learning techniques have enabled relationships and patterns to be discovered over time.  The degree the world is now connected and surveyed is also a driving factor.  Lastly, the public is willing to allow their privacy and rights to be violated if it is deemed to be for the greater good.  Following 9/11 and other terrorist attacks, the population became more willing to sacrifice their liberties if it was believed that would help fight terror (The Associated Press, 2017). 

Another driving factor is the degree that news and social media information can flow, trending based upon certain patterns.  For example, when the population becomes fixated with a particular topic there are a large number of stories and posts related to that topic.  This trending leads the population to believe that a phenomenon may be occurring with a much higher frequency.  For example, if a story about an individual being removed from an airplane because their seat is oversold is popular there will likely be more stories related to overbooking.

Dick’s works bring up more questions than they bring answers.  His view of the future was not terribly bright.  That said, it is up to us to make our future.  We decide if our liberties and rights are worth preserving, and at what cost. 

References

Captain, S. (2015, 2015-09-28). Hitachi says it can predict crimes before they happen.   Retrieved from https://www.fastcompany.com/3051578/hitachi-says-it-can-predict-crimes-before-they-happen

Complex, V. (2016). Philip K. Dick’s ‘Minority Report’ predicted precognition in the human body.

Hickman, L. (2013). How algorithms rule the world. The Guardian, 1.

The Associated Press. (2017). Poll shows most Americans are willing to give up some privacy and freedom to fight terrorism.   Retrieved from http://www.nj.com/news/index.ssf/2011/09/privacy_freedom_poll_shows_ame.html